The US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment led with the threat from drug cartels for apparently the first time in the report’s nearly 20-year history, according to Senate Intelligence Chairman Tom Cotton and news sources.

The threat assessment was released ahead of testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee by President Donald Trump’s intelligence chiefs.

Reference to the national security implications of climate change was omitted, a reversal from previous intelligence assessments, including those under Trump’s first administration.

The document notes that drug cartels in Mexico and other parts of the Western Hemisphere “endanger the health and safety of millions of Americans and contribute to regional instability.” Fentanyl and other potent synthetic opioids caused more than 52,000 deaths in the US in the 12 months ending in October 2024, according to the assessment.

Human trafficking

“Mexico-based TCOs [transnational criminal organizations] are ramping up lethal attacks in Mexico against rivals and Mexican security forces using IEDs, including landmines, mortars, and grenades,” the intelligence assessment says. The assessment says the TCOs are conducting other illegal activities that challenge US security, such as human trafficking, cyber operations, money laundering, and inciting violence.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe testified that the Chinese government has been “limited” and “intermittent” in its effort to curb the domestic production of fentanyl precursors.

One reason for that, Ratcliffe said, using an acronym for the Chinese government, is “there are more than 600 PRC-related companies that produce those precursor chemicals in an industry that generates $1.5 trillion.”

The threat assessment notes that China remains the primary source country for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill pressing equipment, followed by India. Mexico-based chemical brokers circumvent international controls through mislabeled shipments and the purchase of unregulated dual-use chemicals.

China and cyber attacks, AI

China has the ability to hit the United States with conventional weapons, compromise US infrastructure through cyber-attacks, and target its assets in space, as well as continuing efforts to displace the US as the top AI power by 2030, the Threat Assessment noted.

“China almost certainly has a multifaceted, national-level strategy designed to displace the United States as the world’s most influential AI power by 2030,” the report said.

Not mentioned: climate change

In the first Trump administration, multiple annual threat assessments from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence highlighted threats and impacts from climate change. But the report just released did not contain the phrase “climate change.”

Under questioning from Senator Angus King (I-ME), who caucuses with the Democrats, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard avoided using the phrase “climate change.” “Obviously, we’re aware of occurrences within the environment and how they may impact operations, but we’re focused on the direct threats to Americans’ safety, wellbeing and security,” Gabbard said.

Asked by King if she told Department of National Intelligence personnel to avoid any mention of climate change, Gabbard said she “didn’t recall giving that instruction.”